This website uses cookies. See maps and real-time presidential election results for the 2020 US election. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for markets ahead of 3 November - and possibly beyond if an election result is delayed or contested. Biden’s margin is 12,670 votes. Late arriving ballots were counted. US Election 2020. The following 10 peculiarities also lack compelling explanations: 1. The prime minister's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has told journalists to "read Philip Tetlock's Superforecasters, instead of political pundits who don't know what they're talking about". We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Trump grew his support among Black voters by 50 percent over 2016. Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December 2020 in an all-virtual format. If you think that only weirdos have legitimate concerns about these findings and claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you. 6:56 AM. As of Sunday at least 11 Democratic-held House seats have been lost to Republicans (while Democrats have flipped three others). Why is the Coalition planning to give more money to the ABC? Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Interested in learning more about Eurasia Group and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? Not the ones Rudy Giuliani and his team are posing about voter fraud — the judges are answering those — but more philosophical ones about where the Trump campaign may have fallen short. Updated October 10, 2020 The President`s visit to the hospital after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 was a transient one. Trump’s party did not lose a single state legislature and actually made gains at the state level. Want some good news on media diversity? Additionally, our snap elections odds remain unchanged, as we continue to project a 30% chance of early elections before the end of the year. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Yet, Biden leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because of an apparent avalanche of black votes in Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. There are still questions hanging over the 2020 election. LOUD WORLD. This figure is up from its 48% mark of 24 January and has steadily increased over the last few weeks. Previous election results and voter registration numbers help indicate how a district will perform in future elections. The Superforecasters have raised the odds to 68% that the Conservative Party will win the largest number of seats should a snap election happen. 2 December 2020. Missing votes. Good Judgment's Superforecasters currently predict a 78% chance that the United Kingdom will hold an early general election before 1 February 2020, and a 22% chance that a snap election will not happen by then. 5. Bellwether states swung further in Trump’s direction than in 2016. 236 Forecasters • 684 Forecasts Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC. Coronavirus Outbreak. No Tags (2) only; Business (50) only; Technology (42) only; Non-US Politics ... At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? The destruction of mail in ballot envelopes, which must contain signatures. Read headlines covering the presidential debates, results, and more. Subscribers to Good Judgment’s Global Risks dashboard receive daily updates of the Superforecasters’ projections about the general-election results for President and control of Congress plus summaries of the key factors driving those forecasts. Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to Italy, Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections, Situation stabilizes in China as coronavirus cases grow globally. Posted Nov 5, 2020 5:18 am PST In today’s Big Story podcast, as of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency. I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. Something very strange happened in America’s democracy in the early hours of Wednesday, November 4 and the days that followed. Ninety-five percent of Republicans voted for him. In Delaware County, Pennsylvania, 50,000 votes held on 47 USB cards are missing. This is up from last week's 2% figure, but still significantly lower than the 20–30% range, which the figure moved in through the second half of last year. The widespread and, it seems clear, coordinated effort to subvert the 2020 election may actually dwarf that earlier scandal. True, they still get the occasional call right – the British election of 2019 for example – but flipping a coin will give you the right answer as well sometimes, especially in a two-horse race. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. 2. Ballots in pristine condition without creases, that is, they had not been mailed in envelopes as required by law. They were unusually large in size (hundreds of thousands) and had an unusually high (90 per cent and above) Biden-to-Trump ratio. Invalid residential addresses. People who get paid to make forecasts say there’s only a 9% chance that there will be a widely available vaccine for Covid-19 before next April. 21 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 36% chance Italy will hold a snap general election before 31 December 2020, down from the 56% mark on 27 January. To learn more, view our previous Superforecaster Fridays: Will Italy hold a snap general election by the end of 2020? Whatever the results of the American election on November 3, there's only a small chance they won't be contested. Superforecaster Fridays: By 31 December 2020, will Italy hold a snap general election? PD is under less pressure than before the Emilia-Romagna elections, however, to reconsider its alliance with M5S. Statistical anomalies. 6:56 AM. Justice reform is a trigger, though the divisions are deep seated. Counting generally continued without the observers. 8. Midwestern states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin always swing in the same direction as Ohio and Iowa, their regional peers. Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008. Adding to the mystery is a cascade of information about the bizarre manner in which so many ballots were accumulated and counted. Open Judgment’s superforecaster team has a track record of success, having made accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s decision to partially take its national gas company public in 2019, and the status of Russia’s food embargo against some European countries also in 2019. To say out-loud that you find the results of the 2020 presidential election odd is to invite derision. Open Judgement’s superforecaster team has a track record of success, having made accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020… Jean-Pierre Beugoms, superforecaster and Ph.D. candidate in history at Temple University, describes the methods he has used to predict Trump’s success. This is the information used to predict elections. Are you a Superforecaster®? A hard rain has fallen in Downing Street, and the superforecaster forgot his umbrella. Since 1852, only Richard Nixon has lost the electoral college after winning this trio, and that 1960 defeat to John F Kennedy is still the subject of great suspicion. 17 January 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 5% chance the US will impose Section 232 tariffs on the European automobile industry. The Republicans held the Senate and enjoyed a “red wave” in the House, where they gained a large number of seats while winning all 27 toss-up contests. 8 Active Questions. “I decided to test all the reasons the pundits and professional prognosticators were giving for why Trump could not be the GOP nominee,” Beugoms says. Matt Braynard’s Voter Integrity Project estimates that 20,312 people who no longer met residency requirements cast ballots in Georgia. Show All Possible Answers Yes, the … I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. He did extraordinarily well with rural male working class Whites. He got 11 million more votes than in 2016, the third largest rise in support ever for an incumbent. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. Stay ahead of the markets by following Pepperstone’s in-depth analysis and coverage of the 2020 US election: Trump vs Biden. Eurasia Group believes a change in government would not meaningfully affect Italy's policy outlook, since the overall composition of the coalition would not significantly change. Questions raised about the Oxford AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Furthermore, for Trump to lose, not only did one or more of these metrics have to be wrong for the first time ever, but every single one had to be wrong, and at the very same time; not an impossible outcome, but extremely unlikely nonetheless. Supermodel or superforecaster? However, tensions remain rife, as former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (IV) party could potentially move from coalition to opposition. The failure to match signatures on mail in ballots. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. M5S is in an ever-deeper crisis and even more reluctant to face elections given its continued decline in opinion polls. But, when the polls err, non-polling metrics do not; the latter have a 100 percent record. Mark me down as a crank, then. Atypical voting patterns married with misses by polling and non-polling metrics should give observers pause for thought. Here's your chance to forecast. Whether the cause was simple human error or nefarious activity, or a combination, clearly something peculiar happened. 2020 US elections. Additionally, President Donald Trump already has the delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. The upheaval could last for months. It is particularly perplexing that all statistical anomalies and tabulation abnormalities were in Biden’s favour. In the end, it was just a precaution. Former Massachusetts Gov. The superforecaster panel—more about them below—are pretty equally divided between those who expect a vaccine between October 2020 and March 2021, and those who expect it … 297 Forecasters. Homepage / US Election 2020 / America decides. Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC. In Pennsylvania, 23,000 absentee ballots have impossible postal return dates and another 86,000 have such extraordinary return dates they raise serious questions. Each session will run for a maximum of 2½ hours. Another anomaly is found in the comparison between the polls and non-polling metrics. Signal is a newsletter on international affairs published four times a week by GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company. For Trump to lose this election, the mainstream polls needed to be correct, which they were not. Poling was meant to be a bit better than that. It could fracture America. 14 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. In Georgia, Biden overtook Trump with 89 percent of the votes counted. 706 Forecasts. Catholics also supported Trump in higher numbers. Late on election night, with Trump comfortably ahead, many swing states stopped counting ballots. Let’s just get this straight…, Their ABC presents: Jimmy Barnes, the China expert of the Largs Piers Hotel, The Andrews government pre hotel quarantine report manoeuvrings defy reality, Talk is cheap – just like we want our electricity to be. Join … Twitter; Facebook ; LinkedIn; Email; When Boris Johnson addressed MPs this evening on a Zoom call ahead of the Commons vote on his new tier system, his message to would-be rebels was simple: the unity of the Tory party is important so don’t give Labour the satisfaction of seeing a disunited Conservative party. Boris Johnson urged to say if he agreed with views of ‘superforecaster’ Andrew Sabisky Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 12:39 Updated: Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 19:52 Peter Walker and Kate Proctor To questions about the appointment of Andrew Sabisky, a government adviser and self-proclaimed superforecaster who, it transpired, had previously espoused eugenicist views. It’s interesting to note the gap between the Superforecaster probabilities of a Democrat win, at 83% at the beginning of this week, and the betting odds that continue to suggest a somewhat closer race. Non-resident voters. How can our government gameplan for whatever happens in the coming months, and what are … 3. What do you think will happen in the year 2021? … The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. He did not receive comparable levels of support among comparable demographic groups in comparable states, which is highly unusual for the presidential victor. Serious “chain of custody” breakdowns. 17 November 2020 7:31 AM Democratic joy at defeating Donald Trump was partially dulled by the simultaneous diminishment of the party’s House majority. Also, look at Politics in pictures: a visual guide to Italy , and read Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections and Italy's government has collapsed. 2 December 2020. The latter include: party registrations trends; the candidates’ respective primary votes; candidate enthusiasm; social media followings; broadcast and digital media ratings; online searches; the number of (especially small) donors; and the number of individuals betting on each candidate. Closing . You must be a crank or a conspiracy theorist. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Australia's best political analysis - straight to your inbox, Ballots are recounted in Gwinnett County, Georgia, ‘We’re here about the superforecaster job.’, ‘Yes, you could say we’re self-isolating.’, ‘And let’s all try to be a little bit kinder.’, ‘Poor Rishi Sunak — he has four houses to worry about.’, The Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP, Reasons why the 2020 presidential election is deeply puzzling, Parents targeted in Daniel Andrews’ latest gender theory folly, Dangerous elites planning ‘the Great Reset’, China is deliberately singling out Australia to intimidate the region, The Greens: the seasons are now Autumn, Winter, Spring and Climate Change, Victoria offers all the help in the world to enter LGBT life, but wants to ban receiving help to leave it, Ita Buttrose: Emma Alberici, eat your heart out, Ok, Twitter. Trump increased his share of the national Hispanic vote by two-thirds to more than four-in-ten. Social media also offers clues about engagement with voters in the district, as opposed to active donors living 1,000 miles away. But Donald Trump’s team is filing lawsuits, demanding recounts, or halted counts, and looks like it plans to scrap tooth and nail to win the election in the courts no matter the results on the ground. Trump’s vote increased so much because, according to exit polls, he performed far better with many key demographic groups. Tags. Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC. Why Caprice should be on SAGE. In most cases, observers were removed from the counting facilities. 9. Updated 2050 GMT (0450 HKT) February 17, 2020 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced calls to dismiss a controversial adviser. As of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden's bid for the presidency. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. I predict that it, too, will fail and that, come January 20, we will be celebrating Donald Trump’s second inauguration. Over the week before the election, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters engaged in an extensive “pre-mortem” or “what-if” exercise regarding our forecasts for a Blue-Wave election. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here. President Trump received more votes than any previous incumbent seeking reelection. First, consider some facts. Participants should plan to attend both sessions.

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